Subscribe to Trading Tuitions. Pertanyaan yang sering diajukan adalah: If buyers start to leave the market or turn into sellers, there is little chance that the market will continue its upward trend. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. First part of this picture is an accurate Alligator indicator based on the mid price and smoothed as Bill Williams specifies. Before we go into the practical side of things, let us first take a look at the basics.
amibroker, alligator This is a simulation in Amibroker of the Investors Dream Trading program developed by profitunity that uses the Alligator Trading System. Credit goes to Tal of amibroker fan.
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See the link below: There are three parts to it, Jaw, Teeth, and Lips. It is preceded by two lower highs and is followed by two lower highs. When the Alligator lines are open, in trend direction, put a buy stop one point above the recent fractal outside of the lines. When Alligators are closing, traders are closing too. When AO cross line zero from negative to a positive value, we go long.
It short in the opposite scenario. When there are 3 consecutive AO bars above zero line and the last two having higher highs, we go long. Sometimes, AO pulls back for a while. After three consecutive bars, below zero line go long. In the case of short, the reversion of scenario happens.
Penjelasan dari teory ini cukup sederhana yaitu bahwa market mempunyai tiga tipe trend yaitu: Major Trend merupakan trend jangka panjang dari suatu market biasanya ditentukan dalam kurun waktu minimal 1 tahun. Pergerakan harga 4 tahun terakhir. Medium trend merupakan analisa trend untuk jangka menengah biasanya antara 2 minggu sampai 3 bulan. Pergerakan harga 3 bulan terakhir. Kesimpulan globalnya adalah Major trend terbentuk karena adanya gerakan2 dalam medium trend dan minor trend.
Dalam konsep wave analysis biasanya disebutkan bahwa wave yang besar terbentuk karena adanya wave2 yang kecil. Untuk aplikasinya bisa dengan mengunakan peak and through analysis , tapi sebaiknya kita selesaikan pembahasan tentang semua dow theory dulu baru masuk ke peak and through analysis. Dow Theory asserts that major market trends are composed of three phases: During this phase, the stock price does not change much because these investors are in the minority absorbing releasing stock that the market at large is supplying demanding.
Eventually, the market catches on to these astute investors and a rapid price change occurs phase 2. This occurs when trend followers and other technically oriented investors participate.
This phase continues until rampant speculation occurs. At this point, the astute investors begin to distribute their holdings to the market phase 3. Ada 3 fase pergerakan dalam harga yaitu 1. Distribusi harga bisa berupa contuniation trend atau reversal trend. Penerusan bullish trend biasa disebut Excess Phase, penerusan bearish trend biasa disebut panic phases. Stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available.
Once news is released, stock prices will change to reflect this new information. On this point, Dow Theory agrees with one of the premises of the efficient market hypothesis. The idea that the market discounts everything is not new to technical traders, as this is a major premise of many of the tools used in this field of study.
Accordingly, in technical analysis one need only look at price movements, and not at other factors such as the balance sheet. Like mainstream technical analysis, Dow theory is mainly focused on price.
However, the two differ in that Dow theory is concerned with the movements of the broad markets, rather than specific securities.
For example, a follower of Dow theory will look at the price movement of the major market indexes. Once they have an idea of the prevailing trend in the market, they will make an investment decision. If the prevailing trend is upward, it follows that an investor would buy individual stocks trading at a fair valuation. This is where a broad understanding of the fundamental factors that affect a company can be helpful.
Menurut Dow harga yang terjadi saat ini sebenernya sudah merefleksikan kejadian di market saat ini juga. Yang paling penting menurut dow adalah bukan apa yang bisa menyebabkan harga bergerak saat ini tapi reaksi apa yang mungkin terjadi terhadap pergerakan harga saat ini.
The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. To Dow, a bull market in industrials could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first.
If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship the output of them to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air. Dow dalah hal ini setuju dengan adanya inter market correlation. Dan harus ada keterkitan yang kuat antara dua sektor tersebut.
Menurut Dow Jika terjadi kenaikan dibidang prodoksi maka otomatis akan terjadi kenaikan juga dari sisi transportasi Transportasi dibutuhkan untuk distribusi barang. Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations why. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement.
To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing. From this tenet it follows that volume should increase when the price moves in the direction of the trend and decrease when the price moves in the opposite direction of the trend. For example, in an uptrend, volume should increase when the price rises and fall when the price falls. The reason for this is that the uptrend shows strength when volume increases because traders are more willing to buy an asset in the belief that the upward momentum will continue.
Low volume during the corrective periods signals that most traders are not willing to close their positions because they believe the momentum of the primary trend will continue.
Conversely, if volume runs counter to the trend, it is a sign of weakness in the existing trend. For example, if the market is in an uptrend but volume is weak on the up move, it is a signal that buying is starting to dissipate. If buyers start to leave the market or turn into sellers, there is little chance that the market will continue its upward trend. The same is true for increased volume on down days, which is an indication that more and more participants are becoming sellers in the market.
According to Dow theory, once a trend has been confirmed by volume, the majority of money in the market should be moving with the trend and not against it. Menurut Dow, pergerakan harga dipengaruhi leh naik turunya Volume. Volume merupakan salah satu penyebab harga bergerak dalam trend jika seandainya harga bergerak dalam bullish trend maka harus diikuti oleh peningkatan volume juga.
Alasannya adalah, suatu kondisi bullish akan disebut strong bullish jika diikuti oleh peningkatan volume, peningkatan volume ini menunjukkan adanya peningkatan kepercayaan di market bahwa akan terjadi penguatan lebih lanjut. Tapi jika seandainya dalam kondisi bullish malah terjadi penurunan volume yang cukup signifikan secara tidak langsung sudah menujukkan akan adanya reversal trend.
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Bill Wiliams (Alligator) for Amibroker (AFL) - Largest database of free formulas, indicators, oscillators and trading systems for Amibroker (AFL), Metastock, eSignal (EFS), and NinjaTrader. Jun 17, · Amibroker; Alligator Trading System; Results 1 to 4 of 4 Thread: Alligator Trading System. Thread Tools. Show Printable Version; , AM #1. Commando. View Profile View Forum Posts Private Message Join Date AFL of Alligator Trading System is here. Code. Sep 28, · That post used the AmiBroker Formula Language (AFL) code from my article in March That was a long time ago, so here is the 60 day momentum rotation system AFL again: SetBacktestMode(backtestRotational); .